If Prop 26 and Prop 27 weren’t already dead in California, the latest polling data might be the nail in the coffin.
In a new survey, conducted from Oct. 14-23 by the Public Policy Institute of California, only 34% of likely California voters planned to vote yes on Prop 26 and just 26% planned to vote yes on Prop 27. On the flip side, 57% planned to vote no on Prop 26 and 67% planned to vote no on Prop 27.
And there aren’t many undecided voters to sway in the days before the Nov. 8 election. For Prop 26, 9% remain undecided. For Prop 27, 8% are undecided. Even if both campaigns can turn all those undecided votes into yes votes, Prop 26 would only get 43% approval and Prop 27 would get just 34% approval.
That would mean no California sports betting until 2025, if it gets approved in the 2024 election.
Another grim sign for both campaigns: 48% of respondents think legal sports betting would be a “bad thing” for California.
And a terrible sign for online sports betting: Now just 41% of adults ages 18-44 support Prop 27 — compared to 51% in the September PPIC poll.
The biggest difference in terms of favoring Prop 26 or Prop 27 came in the San Francisco Bay Area, where 31% support Prop 26 and 17% support Prop 27. There are several large Indian casinos in the Bay Area, including Graton Resort & Casino, the fifth-largest casino in California.
There were 1,111 likely voter respondents in the new October PPIC poll, with a 5.1% margin of error.
More Prop 26 Details From PPIC Poll
- Only one demographic group had a majority say yes on Prop 26 — 18-44-year-olds (51% yes, 44% no)
- 27% of Republicans support, 39% of Democrats support, 36% of independents support
- 21% of all likely voters say the outcome of Prop 26 is “very important” to them
- Two geographic areas are tied for the most support: Inland Empire and Los Angeles (38%)
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More Prop 27 Details From PPIC Poll
- 41% of 18-44-year-olds support Prop 27, compared to just 19% aged 45 and older; in the September survey, 51% of 18-44-year-olds planned to vote yes
- 34% of likely voters said yes on Prop 27 in September — that’s an 8% drop in a month
- 18% of Republicans support, 27% of Democrats support, 29% of independents support
- 31% of all likely voters say the outcome of Prop 27 is “very important” to them
- The Central Valley had the highest percentage of respondents (33%) say yes on Prop 27
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