Matthew Stafford NFL MVP odds are available at major sportsbooks throughout the US. The Los Angeles Rams quarterback certainly isn’t a favorite right now, but he’s considered one of the outside contenders.
But if the Rams can repeat as Super Bowl champions, Stafford will be a big reason why. Don’t be surprised to see Stafford’s MVP odds improve throughout the season if Los Angeles once again looks like it could compete for a Super Bowl.
Matthew Stafford Is Dark Horse in Latest NFL MVP Odds
Odds listed for four of the top sportsbooks as of Aug. 1, 2022.
Is Matthew Stafford Fully Healthy?
As we approach the 2022-23 season, Stafford is seeking to lead the Rams to a second straight Super Bowl win. As the most prominent player on the defending champs, Stafford and his strong right arm naturally find their way into the NFL MVP discussion.
But is Stafford’s arm actually strong?
In mini-camp In June, Stafford received an injection in his right shoulder and was not allowed to throw a football. His arm was shelved all camp, and a giant lump emerged in the throats of every Rams fan.
The Rams announced in late July that Stafford had resumed throwing the football. But the health of his golden arm is worth watching, and it’s likely that Stafford’s odds to win the MVP have been tempered by his uncertain physical status.
Rams Face a Daunting Schedule in 2023
Stafford will obviously need to put up eye-popping numbers to compete with the likes of Allen and Mahomes. And it could be tough to do that against the schedule the Rams have in 2023.
The difficulty begins right away with a Week 1 game against Allen and the Super Bowl-favorite Buffalo Bills. Then, in a three-game period in September, Los Angeles faces the Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, and Dallas Cowboys. The Rams also have a December road game up in frigid Green Bay, and they also play the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs.
Oldest Players to Win First NFL MVP Award
Stafford will be 34 when he takes his first snap of the 2022-23 season. If he were to win his first MVP Award at that age, he would be far from the oldest to ever win it (Tom Brady was 40 when he won his most recent award). Even winning it an first time isn’t unusual: Fran Tarkenton (35) and Rich Gannon (37) won the NFL MVP for the first time in their mid-to-late 30s.
Gannon is the oldest player to win the award the first time.
John Brodie was 35 when he won the award in 1970, and Joe Theismann was 34 when he won his only MVP, in 1983 for Washington.
But players in the 2020s are in much better condition that they were back in Brodie’s day, or even when Gannon played. Other than a few injuries to his throwing hand and nicks and bangs and bruises that all QBs suffer, Stafford is famous as a ram-tough player. His 41 touchdown passes last season tied his career-high, and his 4,886 yards was the third-most in his career, and the most for Stafford since he was 24.
The way quarterbacks are ensconced in a bubble like a fly in amber today means Stafford should be allowed to play nearly every down for LA in 2022-23. With 17 games on the schedule and with some of the most talented pass-catchers on the other end of his frozen-rope passes, Stafford could set a new personal-best for TDs.
Matthew Stafford NFL MVP Betting Analysis
With everything we just mentioned, it wouldn’t at all be a shock to see Stafford in serious MVP contention as the season progresses — especially with a top target like Cooper Kupp, who finished third in MVP voting last year. So betting for Stafford at +1600 right now is a low-risk, potentially high-reward wager that is probably more realistic than its current odds suggest.
NFL MVP Betting History
Below, you’ll see the top three vote-getters for NFL MVP the past 10 seasons. You’ll also see the MVP winner’s preseason odds. If you made preseason MVP bets on Mahomes and Lamar Jackson to win in 2018 and 2019, congratulations to you.
|NFL MVP Winner
|Aaron Rodgers (+800)
|Aaron Rodgers (+2200)
|Lamar Jackson (+8000)
|Patrick Mahomes (+10000)
|Tom Brady (+400)
|Matt Ryan (+9000)
|Cam Newton (+1500)
|Aaron Rodgers (+600)
|Peyton Manning (+600)
|Adrian Peterson (+4000)
What Other NFL Player Futures Bets Can I Make?
MVP isn’t the only NFL player futures bet you can make. Most major sportsbooks offer a wide range of other NFL player futures bets, including:
- Will a player break the record for most passing yards in a season?
- Who will score the most rushing touchdowns this season?
- Which rookie will have the most receiving yards this season?
- Parlays: Will Player A have the most passing yards and Player B have the most receiving yards this season?
You can also place futures bets on player totals. For instance:
- Aaron Rodgers passing yards total: Over/Under 4,050.5 yards
- Cam Akers rushing touchdowns total: Over/Under 8.5
- Cooper Kupp receptions total: Over/Under 111.5
Matthew Stafford NFL MVP Odds FAQs
Sportsbooks use odds based on a $100 wager for an awards future bet like NFL MVP. For example, +200 is the same as 2-to-1, meaning a $100 bet that wins would pay out $200. So, +1000 would net you $1,000 on a $100 bet.
Most sportsbooks list NFL MVP award odds under “NFL Futures” or in a section called “NFL Awards” or simply “awards.” You can bookmark a page in a sportsbook within your web browser (either laptop or mobile device), and return to it regularly to see how the odds shift.
During the NFL season, the odds will move often — every week based on injury and player/team performance. It’s rare for a player on a bad team to win the award, so if a team gets off to a bad start to the season, that player will typically plummet in the odds. The NFL MVP race is important to keep an eye on, because odds can shift quite a bit based on week-to-week action.