Matthew Stafford and Justin Herbert are two of the NFL’s top quarterbacks NFL, by any measure. But certainly by their ability to rack up touchdown passes. Stafford ranked second in the NFL last year with 41 touchdowns. Herbert was third with 38.
That’s why, if you’re looking for NFL player prop bets to take this season, picking the two Los Angeles quarterbacks to throw lots of touchdown passes would be a smart wager.
Leading the Chargers is Herbert — the fresh, young, up-and-coming signal-caller. Captaining the ship of the world champion Rams is Stafford. He’s the older veteran who has been around the block a few times. And if a block is the equivalent of an NFL season, let’s just call it 13.
While they’re at different stages in their careers, gamblers might find value in giving a look at betting markets for both QBs. One that we’ve got our eye on in particular is the player prop to throw 30+ touchdowns during the 2022 season.
Let’s dive into why we think these two LA QBs will light up the scoreboards this year with at least 30 TDs apiece.
PROP 26 vs. PROP 27: Campaign Spending Tops $390 Million After 14 August Contributions
At FanDuel, the odds for Stafford to hit the 30+ TD mark is -310. So a nice $100 wager would win you about $132 total if Stafford hits or exceeds 30 touchdowns in 2022. But before we make a case for why this is a good bet, let’s address the elephant in the room.
According to reports, the Detroit Lion-turned-LA Ram has been dealing with tendinitis in the offseason. That soreness in his throwing arm prevented him from throwing during spring workouts. However, Stafford told ESPN that he’s “right on track” to do what he wants to be doing.
In a perfect world where athletes and coaches are fully transparent about injuries (side eye at you especially, Bill Belichick), we could take Stafford’s statements at face value. And even in this imperfect world, we choose to believe that No. 9 is feeling fine.
Now that’s out of the way. So let’s look at why we think Stafford at -310 to throw 30+ TDs in 2022 is a good bet.
— Cam ✨SB LVI CHAMPIONS (@RamsWRLD_) September 1, 2022
Win or lose — and there was a lot more of the latter when he was Detroit — Stafford has consistently put up huge numbers when it comes to the passing game. In 2011, he threw for 5,038 yards and 41 TDs. In 2013, it was 4,650 passing yards and 29 TDs. The No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick in 2009 proved again in his 2015 campaign why he gets paid the big bucks. That year, he passed for 4,262 yards and 32 TDs.
And in his first year with the Rams in 2021, Matthew Stafford passed for 4,886 yards and 41 TDs.
As Tom Brady’s wife Gisele Bündchen famously declared (and we paraphrase), quarterbacks cannot “throw the ball and catch the ball at the same time.” So what kind of receivers does Staffy have in his arsenal that will make a 30+ TD season possible? We’ve got two words for you: Cooper Kupp, Super Bowl MVP.
That was five words, but you get where we’re going.
Last season, Kupp racked up 16 regular season touchdowns. If the reigning Offensive Player of the Year can emulate that performance in 2022, that will help Stafford get more than halfway to the 30+ touchdowns for his player prop to pay off.
He’s young. His coach Brandon Staley is also young and makes questionable end-of-game coaching decisions. So is there even a good case to make for why gamblers should throw a few bucks on Herbert’s odds of -550 to pass for 30 or more TDs in 2022?
Well, is there really a good case to not?
Herbert’s odds in this market are tied for first with Tom Brady. Next are the Bills’ Josh Allen and then the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes at -390. Clearly, with these short odds, bookmakers like Herbert’s chances. And if you look at projections on Stat Muse, they do, too.
At Stat Muse, Herbert’s projected touchdown total in 2022 is set at 33.9. He successfully passed for 38 touchdowns in his first full year as a starter in 2021. Imagine how high his ceiling is now that he has that first year under his belt.
If you’re feeling risky, you could even go Herbert -155 to throw 35 or more touchdowns. The payout would be bigger and the stakes higher.
In California QBs We Trust
Let’s be real. Are there other prop bets in this market that might be more enticing? Especially considering both Herbert and Stafford’s current odds are on the short side? Absolutely.
You could take Jameis Winston at +220 if you think he’s the hero the Saints need to make them competitive in the NFC South. For a bigger risk, Justin Fields at +600 is sitting at the bottom of the oddsboard. Can the Bulldog-turned-Buckeye-turned-Bear be a bettor’s dream and make this prop come true? A few dollars on Fields surely won’t hurt.
But for gamblers looking to stay in the black this season with a couple of fun bets, we like Herbert and Stafford in the 30+ touchdown prop market. It’s in these two California quarterbacks we trust to give you a nice return on your investment this regular season.