A new statewide survey casts serious doubt on if Prop 27 will pass in California this November.
The Public Policy Institute of California, an independent non-profit research firm based in San Francisco, found that 54% of likely voters plan to vote no on Prop 27, compared to 34% who plan to vote yes. The other 12% is unsure.
The PPIC survey, which was conducted from Sept. 2-11, had 1,705 respondents and 1,060 of those identified as likely voters. It focused on many questions surrounding the California election, including Prop 27, Prop 1 (reproductive freedom), and Prop 30 (pollution/wildfires funding by increasing income tax over $2 million).
Prop 27 would legalize online sports betting in California, allowing companies such as DraftKings California and BetMGM California to launch. Its rival ballot measure, Prop 26, would legalize sports betting only in-person at California Indian casinos and the state’s four horse racetracks. The PPIC survey didn’t ask any questions regarding Prop 26.
Of the 1,060 likely voters, just 29% said the outcome of Prop 27 is very important. For contrast, 61% believe the outcome of Prop 1 is very important, and 42% feel that way about Prop 30.
Broken down by political party, 21% of Republicans said they would vote yes on Prop 27, 34% of Democrats said they would vote yes, and 40% of Independents said they would vote yes. Only two demographic groups had a majority say they plan to vote yes: likely voters age 18-44 (52%) and renters (51%). Here is the exact wording of the question regarding Prop 27:
Proposition 27 is called Allows Online and Mobile Sports Wagering Outside Tribal Lands. Initiative Constitutional Amendment. It allows Indian tribes and affiliated businesses to operate online and mobile sports wagering outside tribal lands. It directs revenues to regulatory costs, homelessness programs, and nonparticipating tribes. The fiscal impact is increased state revenues, possibly in the hundreds of millions of dollars but not likely to exceed $500 million annually. Some revenues would support state regulatory costs, possibly reaching the mid-tens of millions of dollars annually. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 27?
PPIC interviewed 1,705 California adults for this survey. Of that group, 1,060 identified as likely voters and 1,442 said they were registered voters. Democrats made up the majority of respondents, at 638. There were 353 Republicans, and 391 who identified as Independent or had no party preference.
The PPIC used phone calls to conduct the polling — 1,275 on cell phones, 430 on landlines.
The margin for error for responses from likely voters was 5.4%.
Is Public Policy Institute of California Reliable?
According to FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings, yes. The data analytics site gives the PPIC an A/B grade, its fourth-highest mark behind A+, A, and A-. FiveThirtyEight has analyzed 17 polls conducted by PPIC, and 100% of those polls predicted the correct outcome.